Situation brief · updated Tuesday 4 August 2026
From Bavaria to the delta, gauge after gauge is setting all-time lows. Where the river is failing, what the official forecast says for the next seven days, and how the shortfall is propagating into the power systems of five countries.
Two fingers to pan and pinch · ⌘/Ctrl + scroll on desktop · tap a station for detail
Eighteen stations along 2,225 km of river
Each station carries the condition reported at that gauge or installation between 27 July and 4 August 2026.
Baziaș section · 1,590 m³/s on 1 August, about 1,450 by Friday · the Bala sill is worth 10–15 cm against this curve
Serbian hydrologists expect no significant rainfall in the basin for the next 15–20 days, and effectively none for the rest of August. Rain has started in the Austrian catchment, but that water needs about two weeks to reach Cernavodă. Only the two diamonds are published figures. The dashed line between them is drawn, not forecast — treat the shape, not the daily value. August multi-annual mean is 3,900 m³/s: the whole chart sits inside the bottom eighth of a normal August.
Status as reported 27 July – 3 August · five countries, one river
Romania · ~15% of national consumption
Unit 2 must stop once flow drops below 1,400 m³/s — expected most likely on Friday. The Bala sill is meant to buy 10–15 cm against that. Apele Române does not expect a real recovery at Cernavodă before mid-August.
Paks · ~half of national supply
The last block went down at 01:30 on Sunday — the first complete stop in the plant's 44 years. Supply to large industrial consumers may now be cut by decree if they do not reduce demand, and households are asked to add no load between 17:00 and 22:00.
Serbia–Romania · 1,000 MW per side
Run-of-river generation follows the flow: with the Danube at a third of normal, so is the turbine output. The proposed Iron Gates III scheme is now being argued over on exactly these grounds.
Bavaria → Black Sea
A 2,000-tonne vessel is loading 300 to 500. In Hungary only a fraction of the cargo fleet still moves, at 10–20% of capacity; in Serbia it is 25–30%. Three ships are aground on the Bulgarian stretch, a cruise ship with 240 aboard grounded near Cetate, and the Oryahovo–Bechet ferry has stopped. No authority has closed the river — the masters decide.
Romania · national alert for August
Prices reached 730 lei/MWh after the Cernavodă shutdown. Gas and coal plants are told to run as hard as they can, hydro is reserved for the peak, and imports from Ukraine have started, since Hungary and Bulgaria can no longer help. The emergency committee has raised the option of disconnecting large industrial consumers to protect the network. Iași has switched off street lighting overnight; households and firms are asked to hold back in the evening.
Danube km 345 · Naval Forces
Sunday's charges failed; Monday's 180 kg succeeded, lifting flow on the Old Danube by about 15% and stopping the fall at Cernavodă. Four barges should be on the bed by Wednesday morning, for an expected 10–15 cm. Excavators with hydraulic hammers are breaking the blasted rock to load them.
Germany & Austria
Verbund is producing about 30% less hydro power than its long-term average. No authority has closed the river — masters decide reach by reach — but a 2,000-tonne vessel is carrying 300 to 500, the rest waits in port, and the shortfall shifts to rail and road. Tankers out of the Schwechat and Bratislava refineries are among the worst affected.
EPS · Vode Vojvodine
Đerdap 1 is at a fifth of normal output and Đerdap 2 at a third, on inflows last seen in 2003; May–July were the weakest months since the plants were commissioned. Kostolac has cooling trouble too. The prime minister has asked for ten days of reduced consumption, the president has warned the refinery may have to stop, and the Bezdan pumping station has already stopped.
Kozloduy · IAPPD
Both Kozloduy units are running to schedule, and the energy ministry expects no significant derating for at least three weeks at the current rate of decline — the plant draws from its own shore station in a deeper bay. The river is another matter: navigation is under force majeure, three ships are aground and the Ruse dredging fleet has stopped.
The hours when solar has gone and demand has not. Evening consumption reaches about 8,000 MW.
Half the nuclear block is already gone and the 1,293 MW hole is being filled by imports. If Unit 2 also stops, that need grows sharply. Transelectrica says it stays within interconnection capacity — the margin, not the supply, is what has narrowed. New solar entering the system does nothing for the 20:00–23:00 window.