Situation brief · updated Wednesday 19 August 2026
From Bavaria to the delta, gauge after gauge is setting all-time lows. Where the river is failing, what the official forecast says for the next seven days, and how the shortfall is propagating into the power systems of five countries.
Two fingers to pan and pinch · ⌘/Ctrl + scroll on desktop · tap a station for detail
Eighteen stations along 2,225 km of river
Each station carries the condition reported at that gauge or installation between 27 July and 19 August 2026.
Baziaș section · 1,300 m³/s forecast for 21 August · the alpine rise should reach Romania next week
The river has turned upstream while still falling downstream, because the rise travels: five to six days from Baziaș to Cernavodă, longer from the Alps. Passau and Vienna gained first, Budapest and Bezdan followed, Ruse and Cernavodă have not yet. Only the two diamonds are published figures. The dashed line between them is drawn, not forecast — treat the shape, not the daily value. August multi-annual mean is 3,900 m³/s: the whole chart sits inside the bottom eighth of a normal August.
Status as reported 27 July – 19 August · five countries, one river
Romania · ~15% of national consumption
Flow at the country’s entry hit the 1,400 m³/s threshold on Thursday 6 August, and Unit 2 is still running: the constraint at the plant is the level in the pump intake, which lags the entry gauge by five to six days. The Bala sill is meant to buy 10–12 cm against that lag.
Paks · ~half of national supply
At 01:30 Tuesday the plant was millimetres from its first complete stop in 44 years; the level then rose and the last 240 MW turbine is holding. Supply to large industrial consumers may now be cut by decree if they do not reduce demand, and households are asked to add no load between 17:00 and 22:00. Companies announce savings measures daily — OMV Hungária has closed all 130 of its own car washes indefinitely. Turbine 3 on Block 2 was restarted on 10 August after the river rose 19 cm off its low, but the level has turned down again and the plant may stay at reduced capacity for weeks. The government is accelerating a bottom sill and possible barge sinking to secure the intake.
Serbia–Romania · 1,000 MW per side
Run-of-river generation follows the flow: with the Danube at a third of normal, so is the turbine output. The proposed Iron Gates III scheme is now being argued over on exactly these grounds.
Bavaria → Black Sea
A 2,000-tonne vessel is loading 300 to 500. In Hungary only a fraction of the cargo fleet still moves, at 10–20% of capacity; in Serbia it is 25–30%. Three ships are aground on the Bulgarian stretch, a cruise ship with 240 aboard grounded near Cetate, and the Oryahovo–Bechet ferry has stopped. No authority has closed the river — the masters decide.
Romania · national alert for August
Prices reached 730 lei/MWh after the Cernavodă shutdown. Gas and coal plants are told to run as hard as they can, hydro is reserved for the peak, and imports from Ukraine have started, since Hungary and Bulgaria can no longer help. The emergency committee has raised the option of disconnecting large industrial consumers to protect the network. Iași has switched off street lighting overnight, water-supply restrictions are in force in some 80 localities, and households and firms are asked to hold back in the evening.
Danube km 345 · Naval Forces
All four barges were on the bed by Saturday evening, forming two artificial sills, and Sunday delivered an 8 cm swing against the forecast. It did not last: by Monday night the fall had resumed faster than estimated, and the ministry calls the works not durable.
Germany & Austria
Verbund is producing about 30% less hydro power than its long-term average. No authority has closed the river — masters decide reach by reach — but a 2,000-tonne vessel is carrying 300 to 500, the rest waits in port, and the shortfall shifts to rail and road. Tankers out of the Schwechat and Bratislava refineries are among the worst affected.
EPS · Vode Vojvodine
Đerdap 1 is at a fifth of normal output and Đerdap 2 at a third, on inflows last seen in 2003; May–July were the weakest months since the plants were commissioned. Kostolac has cooling trouble too. The prime minister has asked for ten days of reduced consumption, the president has warned the refinery may have to stop, and the Bezdan pumping station has already stopped.
Kozloduy · IAPPD
Both Kozloduy units are running to schedule, and the energy ministry expects no significant derating for at least three weeks at the current rate of decline — the plant draws from its own shore station in a deeper bay. The river is another matter: navigation is under force majeure, three ships are aground and the Ruse dredging fleet has stopped.